Pick'em EV
Pick'em EV Software
Dabble prices almost every Pick'em selection in their own favour. There are a handful they get wrong, BookieCharity spots them.
The short version
What is Pick’em EV?
Pick’em is Dabble’s player prop multi promotion. You build a multi by choosing whether players will go over or under on particular stat lines, and instead of each leg having its own odds, the pick’em pays a fixed multiplier based on how many legs you include.
That fixed multiplier entices many punters, but over 99% of the options Dabble puts up are priced in their favour, and most punters stack these picks, which compounds the bookmaker’s edge across every leg. Our tool finds the small percentage that are mispriced so the compounding runs the other way.
The maths
Every leg count has a price to beat
Pick’em pays a fixed multiplier rather than odds, which allows us to work out the real price you are being offered on each leg. A 5 leg pick'em pays 25x, and 25x spread across five legs comes out at 1.903 per leg. That is your threshold. You can see the threshold for other leg counts in the table pictured.
For each selection to have an edge, the fair odds of each leg must be lower than the threshold odds for your pick'em. If you are building a 5 leg pick'em and the tool shows a pick with fair odds of 1.75, that pick is +EV, because 1.75 is below 1.903. We are essentially getting better odds than the true odds suggest, Fill all five legs with picks beating the threshold and the edge compounds in your direction.
The tool works the threshold out for you and prices every pick against it, so the EV% on screen is already measured against the leg count you have chosen.
Pick’em odds breakdown
The fair odds you need to beat for each leg count
Inside the tool
Every pick, priced against the threshold
Each pick arrives as a single row with the fair odds, the threshold for your leg count and the edge already worked out, making it extremely easy to build a pick'em with an actual edge.
What each column tells you
- Sport
- The league the pick belongs to
- Match
- The game, with the start time in your local timezone
- Market
- The stat line, for example pitcher strikeouts or total bases
- Selection
- The player and the side to take, more or less
- Bookmakers
- Where the pick’em gets placed, which is always Dabble
- Fair Odds
- What the pick is actually worth
- Threshold
- The price to beat at your chosen leg count
- EV%
- How far the fair odds sit below the threshold
- Info
- Every bookmaker’s price on the same line, win probability and last update
- Track
- Sends the pick’em to your bet tracker once it is placed
Building a pick'em takes a minute
- 1Set your leg count in the filters so the thresholds match what you are building
- 2Take the highest EV% picks from the top of the table, or hit Auto Build
- 3Copy the selections into the Dabble app and place the pick’em
- 4Hit add to tracker to log it
Expand any row to see what every other bookmaker is pricing the same line at.
Filters
Only see the picks worth taking
Four filters decide what reaches your screen. Save a set as your default and it loads automatically every time you open the tool.
Legs
How many picks your pick’em will hold. Every pick on screen is then priced against that leg count’s threshold.
EV
How far above fair value a pick sits. We suggest 3% to 20%.
Starts in
How far ahead games can be. Closer to start time is always best as the odds are sharper close to the jump and it is good for account health.
Min books
How many bookmakers have to be pricing a line before it appears. Six or more is recommended for accuracy.
Building your pick’em
Pick the legs yourself, or let the tool do it
A pick’em needs between 2 and 12 players. Every pick you add lifts the multiplier and lifts the threshold with it, so the legs have to be chosen against the count you are building for.
Manual
Choose your own legs
Work down the table from the top, since it is sorted by EV%, and tick the picks you want. The multi panel keeps a running count and holds your selections while you keep looking.
Auto build
Let the tool assemble it
Set the number of legs you want and hit Auto Build. The tool puts together the pick’em with the highest combined EV from whatever is on screen, and it already knows Dabble’s rules.
Rules Dabble enforces
- You cannot select the same player twice in one pick’em
- You need players from at least two different teams
- Adjusted picks are filtered out for you, so nothing on screen can be one
When your pick’em is built, copy the selections across to the Dabble app, place it, and hit add to tracker so everything is tracked and you can watch your edge compound over a large sample size.
FAQ
Pick’em EV FAQ
What is Pick’em?
Pick’em is Dabble’s player prop product. You choose between 2 and 12 players, call each one more or less on their stat line, and the pick’em pays a fixed multiplier if every pick lands.
Because the payout is fixed, the odds you are getting on each leg can be worked out exactly. That is what makes it beatable.
What is a threshold?
It is the fair odds a pick has to beat for your pick’em to be worth taking. A 5 leg pick’em pays 25x, which works out at 1.903 per leg, so anything priced below 1.903 in fair odds is +EV at that leg count.
Change your leg count and the threshold changes with it. The tool handles that and prices every pick against the count you have selected.
How many legs should I use?
Five legs has the easiest threshold to beat at 1.903, so it carries the best edge long term, but the swings are severe and you should expect to lose several pick’ems in a row.
Three legs sits at 1.867, which is a slightly harder threshold, but the profit curve is far steadier. If you would rather see consistent results than the biggest edge, start there.
Why do most people lose at Pick’em?
Because over 99% of the picks on offer are priced below their fair odds. One pick like that is a small disadvantage, but a multi multiplies every leg together, so five of them turn a small disadvantage into a badly negative bet.
The maths is the same either way. Fill your pick’em with picks that sit above fair value instead and the same multiplying works for you.
Included in Sports Premium
Start beating Pick'em today
The Pick'em tool comes with positive EV, arbitrage, middles, odds comparison, the bet tracker, education modules and premium Discord access.
$19.99/week or $64.99/month