Positive EV
Positive EV Betting Software
BookieCharity scans 100+ bookmakers in real time, strips their built in margins and flags every bet priced above its true value. The fair odds, the edge and the stake are all worked out for you.
The short version
What is positive EV betting?
A positive EV bet is one where a bookmaker has priced an outcome higher than its true probability. If the fair price on a market is 3.32 and a bookmaker is offering 3.60, you are being paid more than the risk is worth. That gap is your edge.
Any single bet can still lose, and it often will. What matters is that every bet you place carries a mathematical advantage, so across hundreds of bets the edge compounds. It is the same principle a bookmaker relies on to stay in business, just pointed the other way.
The hard part is finding those prices. Fair odds have to be calculated from the whole market, then compared against every bookmaker across thousands of selections, and the prices move constantly. Doing it by hand for a single bet takes longer than the opportunity lasts. That is the job the software does.
Worked example
What an edge actually looks like
TAB is offering 3.60 on Over 54.5 total points in the NRL match between Melbourne Storm and Gold Coast Titans. Our benchmark puts the fair price at 3.32.
Divide one by the other and you have the edge: 3.60 / 3.32 = 1.0835. That is 8.35% EV, so for every $100 staked on this bet you expect to make $8.35 in the long run.
Expanding the row shows every bookmaker’s price on the same market, so you can see exactly how far the outlier sits from the rest of the pack before you commit.
Melbourne Storm vs Gold Coast Titans
Over 54.5 Total Points
Offered
3.60
Fair odds
3.32
How it works
From raw odds to a bet worth taking
Four steps run continuously in the background. By the time an opportunity reaches your screen, the maths behind it is already done.
Gather odds
Prices are pulled from every bookmaker at once, including sharp books like Pinnacle that are known for pricing accurately.
Strip the margins
Every bookmaker builds a profit margin into their odds. We remove it, leaving that bookmaker’s own honest view of the price.
Build the benchmark
Those de-margined prices are combined into a weighted average, with sharper bookmakers carrying more weight. That is our fair odds.
Compare and alert
Every bookmaker is measured against the benchmark. Anything priced above it hits the website and Discord instantly.
Inside the tool
Everything on one screen
Every opportunity arrives as a single row, with all the information you need to judge it and place it without opening a spreadsheet.
What each column tells you
- Sport
- The league the opportunity belongs to
- Match
- Teams or players, with the start time in your local timezone
- Market
- The betting market type
- Selection
- The exact outcome to back
- Bookmaker
- Who is offering it. Click the logo to go straight to their site
- Odds
- The current price, always worth checking before you place
- EV%
- How far above fair value the bet sits
- Stake
- Recommended stake, sized from your filters
- Info
- Fair odds, win probability and when the price last updated
- Track
- Sends the bet straight to your tracker, pre-filled
Placing a bet takes seconds
- 1Click the bookmaker’s logo to land on the match page on their site
- 2Check the odds have not moved since the alert went out
- 3Place the bet at the stake shown
- 4Hit the + icon to log it in your tracker
If the price has drifted down but is still sitting above fair odds, the bet is still +EV and worth taking. If it has dropped below, skip it. There is always another.
Filters
Only see the bets you want
Six filters decide what reaches your screen. Save a set as your default and it loads automatically every time you open the tool.
Sport
Choose which sports appear. We recommend leaving them all on.
Bookmakers
Narrow it to the bookmakers you actually hold accounts with, so nothing on screen is wasted.
Odds
Set your odds range. A lower maximum means fewer bets and less variance, a higher one means more of both.
EV%
Anything above 0% is profitable, but we suggest a 3% floor. Very high figures, 20% and up, are worth avoiding because they draw attention to your accounts.
Starts in
Limit how far ahead events can be. Betting close to the jump is best, ideally within a few hours.
Stake
Stakes are sized with the Kelly criterion. Half Kelly is a sensible balance, and rounding to the nearest $5 keeps your betting patterns looking ordinary.
Advanced
EV multis
Once you are comfortable with singles, the tool can stack several +EV legs into one multi. Pick the legs yourself from the table or use auto build, hit Generate Multi, then place and track it as normal. There is an SGM toggle if you only want same game multis.
Combining legs multiplies each one’s edge, so the multi carries a larger overall EV% than any leg on its own. Multis are also kind to account health, because they make your betting look like everyone else’s.
The trade off is variance. The combined odds are much longer, wins come far less often and losing runs stretch out. Start with singles, and only move across once you have a decent sample behind you.
Nick Daicos Over 26.5 Disposals
AFL · Collingwood vs Essendon
1.85
+4.20%
Over 168.5 Total Points
AFL · Collingwood vs Essendon
2.10
+3.80%
LeBron James Over 28.5 Points
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics
1.72
+5.10%
Combined odds
6.68
Stake
$25
FAQ
Positive EV betting FAQ
What is positive EV betting?
Positive expected value betting means only backing selections where the bookmaker’s odds are greater than the true probability of the outcome occurring. If the fair price is 3.32 and a bookmaker offers 3.60, that bet carries an 8.35% edge.
You will not win every bet, and you will hit losing streaks along the way. That is variance, and it is unavoidable. In the long run the maths plays out and your edge shows.
Do I need any experience to use it?
No. The software does the calculations, so using it is a matter of reading a row and placing the bet it shows you. Most members place their first bet within a few minutes of signing up.
Every plan includes education modules that cover the strategy from the beginning, along with the option to join our Discord server where you can talk to experienced members or have a one on one chat with the team.
How often are the odds updated?
Odds are updated in real time. As an event gets closer to its start time, every supported bookmaker is refreshed every 60 seconds, so what you see on screen is what is actually available.
What bookmakers are supported?
All Australian bookmakers, the major US bookmakers and one EU bookmaker, over 100 in total. That includes Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, bet365, PointsBet, Dabble, betr, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, Pinnacle and many more.
You can filter the tools down to only the bookmakers you hold accounts with. If there is one we do not cover yet, tell us and we will look at adding it.
How much can I make from EV betting?
There is no fixed figure. Everyone makes a different amount depending on their bankroll, the time they can spend EV betting and the average EV% they are taking.
Members doing it on the side are usually clearing $300 to $1,000 a week, and our heaviest users go well beyond that. The more you can turn over, the further the edge scales.
Included in Sports Premium
Start finding mispriced odds today
The +EV scanner comes with arbitrage, middles, odds comparison, the bet tracker, education modules and premium Discord access.
$19.99/week or $64.99/month