How Much Can You Make From Positive EV Betting in Australia?
Strategy8 min read
It is the first question everyone asks about positive EV betting, and the honest answer is that it depends on four numbers: your bankroll, your average edge, how you stake, and how many bets you place.
None of them are a secret, and once you know them the maths does the rest. This guide walks through exactly how expected profit is worked out, how it scales, and what gets in the way. There is a calculator halfway down so you can plug in your own numbers.
If you are new to the idea, start with our guide to positive EV betting first. This one assumes you know what an edge is.
The Formula
Expected profit is simply how much you bet in total, multiplied by your average edge.
Expected profit
Expected profit = turnover × average EV%
Turnover is the total amount you stake. If you place 40 bets in a week at an average of $67 each, your turnover is about $2,670.
$2,670 × 4% = $107 expected for the week
That $107 is not what you will make in any given week. It is what you would average per week if you ran that same week hundreds of times. Some weeks will be well above it, some will be a loss, and over a long enough run your results drift towards it.
How Big Should Each Bet Be?
The stake comes from the Kelly Criterion, which sizes each bet as a share of your bankroll based on the edge and the odds.
Kelly stake
Kelly % = EV% / (odds - 1)
4% / (2.50 - 1) = 2.67% of bankroll
On a $5,000 bankroll that is $133 at full Kelly. Most people use half Kelly, which gives the $67 stake above.
Full Kelly grows a bankroll fastest on paper, but the swings are brutal and any error in your edge hurts. Half or quarter Kelly gives up a little growth for a much smoother ride, which is why we recommend it.
Work Out Your Own Numbers
Drag the sliders to match how you bet. The calculator shows your average stake, your weekly turnover, your expected profit, and how likely you are to finish a week or a year behind.
Expected profit calculator
Set your own averages. Every figure updates as you drag.
Staking
Average stake
$67
1.3% of bankroll per bet
Weekly turnover
$2,667
Total staked across the week
Expected per week
$107
Chance of a losing week: 42%
Expected per year
$5,547
Chance of a losing year: 7%
Most years land somewhere between -$1,946 and $13,040.
Expected value, not a prediction. Assumes every bet has the average edge and odds above, stakes stay flat off the starting bankroll, and no accounts are restricted along the way. Real results will vary.
A few things worth noticing as you play with it. Doubling your bets per week doubles your expected profit, but the chance of a losing week barely moves. What really brings the losing weeks down is time: the chance of a losing year is always far lower than the chance of a losing week.
How It Scales
Every lever in the calculator multiplies straight through to the result, which is why the same strategy can be worth a coffee a day to one person and a part time wage to another.
Bankroll
Kelly stakes are a percentage, so a bigger bankroll means bigger bets on the same edges. Going from $5,000 to $20,000 quadruples every stake and quadruples the expected profit with it.
Volume
More bets means more turnover. Volume is limited by how many opportunities exist and how much time you have, which is where software matters. Checking prices by hand you might find a handful of value bets a week. A scanner watching every bookmaker at once finds them all day.
Edge
A higher average EV% is worth more on every dollar staked, but chasing it has a cost. Bets showing 20%+ are rare, often errors that get voided, and the fastest way to get an account flagged. A steady 3 to 6% is the sweet spot.
Same strategy, two scales
$5,000 bankroll, 40 bets a week at 4% EV, average odds of 2.50 and half Kelly: about $107 a week expected, or $5,500 over a year.
$20,000 bankroll, 100 bets a week on the same settings: about $1,070 a week expected, or $55,000 over a year.
Nothing about the strategy changed. Only the bankroll and the volume did.
Losing Weeks Are Normal
At average odds of 2.50 you lose most of your bets. That is fine, the winners are priced to more than cover them, but it means short runs can look ugly.
On the default calculator settings, roughly four weeks in ten finish behind. Over a full year that drops to about one in fourteen. That is exactly what an edge looks like up close: noisy week to week, reliable over hundreds of bets.
The people who make EV betting work are the ones who keep staking properly through the bad runs instead of chasing losses or stopping. Tracking every bet in a bet tracker helps here, because it shows your actual profit against your expected profit, so you can see whether a bad week is bad luck or a problem with your bets.
The Ceiling: Account Restrictions
The calculator assumes every bookmaker takes every bet. In reality, Australian bookmakers do not like punters who consistently beat them, and eventually they will limit your stakes or take your promotions away.
That is what stops EV betting scaling forever. A bookmaker that limits you to $10 a bet has taken that slice of turnover out of the equation. Our guide to avoiding bookmaker restrictions covers this in full, but the basics are:
- Spread your bets across as many bookmakers as you can. There are over 100 in Australia, and each one is worth a lot before it restricts you.
- Round stakes to the nearest $5 so they look like a normal punter's.
- Avoid the very highest EV% bets, which are the ones bookmakers watch most closely.
Adding Promotions On Top
EV betting is one income stream. Bookmaker promotions are a second, and they work very differently.
Bonus bets can be turned into cash by hedging them against another bookmaker, keeping 70 to 80% or more of the bonus value with no risk on the result. Racing promotions like bonus back for 2nd or 3rd add value to bets you were going to place anyway. Our matched betting guide covers how both work.
Promotions have far less variance than EV betting, and they do not need a big bankroll. That is why we recommend most people start there, then add EV betting as their bankroll grows.
Getting Started
Everything in this guide comes down to finding enough value bets to build up turnover, which is the part software does for you. The Bookie Charity positive EV scanner compares every Australian bookmaker against fair odds in real time, works out the Kelly stake for your bankroll, and sends each bet straight to your tracker.
Where to go next
- Positive EV betting explained, for how fair odds are worked out in the first place
- Bonus turnover, the lower risk place to start
- Bookmaker margins, the edge the bookies start with and how you take it back