Positive EV Betting: How to Beat Bookmakers with Expected Value

Majority of punters lose money. It's not because they're unlucky. It's because they're taking the wrong bets.

There's a smarter way to bet that flips the odds in your favour. It's called positive expected value betting, and it's how many people from Australia and all around the world are now making consistent profits from bookmakers.

What is Expected Value?

Expected value (EV) is a mathematical concept that measures the average outcome you can expect from a decision over the long term. To put it simply, it tells you whether something will make you money or lose you money if you do it many times.

Think of it like this, if you could repeat the exact same scenario 1,000 times, the expected value will be what your average result would be per attempt.

In Betting:

Positive EV refers to a bet that has a higher probability of winning than the odds suggest.

Imagine you're offered 2.50 odds on a fair coin flip, where the true probability of heads is 50%.

The fair odds should be 2.00 (50% chance), but you're getting 2.50.

In the short term, luck may cause wins or losses, but over many flips (say 1,000), the mathematical advantage becomes clear. Since the offered odds are better than the actual probability of the outcome occurring, you'd end up in profit.

Negative EV is the opposite, when the odds offered are worse than the true probability suggests they should be. This is how bookmakers make their profit, as most regular bets have negative expected value for the bettor, and these are the bets that 99.9%+ of your average punters take.

A Real Example - AFL

Carlton v Collingwood.

The fair odds for Carlton to win are $2.20.

Most bookmakers are offering Carlton at $2.10. That's negative EV.

But Sportsbet is offering Carlton at $2.50.

EV% = (odds / fair odds - 1) × 100

EV% = (2.50 / 2.20 - 1) × 100

EV% = 13.6%

Betting on Carlton at $2.50 gives you a 13.6% edge.

This doesn't mean the bet will win. Carlton could lose this game, or the next 10 games in a row. But take this bet 1,000 times across different matches and the math plays out. You end up in profit.

That's positive expected value. You're getting paid more than the bet is actually worth.

How Can We Find The Fair Odds?

To find a positive EV bet, you first need to know what the fair odds should be.

There are two main ways to determine fair odds:

Using Betfair:

Betfair is a betting exchange where users bet against each other rather than against a bookmaker. This creates a "wisdom of the crowd" effect where thousands of bettors collectively move the prices to set odds that are extremely close to true probability.

Studies show Betfair markets are very accurate, with the difference between predicted and actual outcomes averaging just 0.27%.

However, Betfair is most effective closer to the start time of an event when there's high liquidity. Early markets with low trading volume can be less reliable.

By using Betfair as your benchmark, you can compare what bookmakers are offering and spot when they're paying more than the market believes the bet is worth.

Using Multiple Bookmaker Odds:

Another way is to gather odds from multiple bookmakers, remove their margins, and average the results.

Individual bookmakers build profit margins into their odds. By removing these margins and averaging across several bookies, you create an accurate benchmark for fair odds.

This method also uses the wisdom of the crowd, giving you a reliable reference point to compare against.

Finding EV Bets Manually

Now that you understand fair odds, here's what you'd need to do if you want to find +EV bets manually:

Check dozens of bookmakers. Gather the odds. Remove the margins. Calculate fair odds. Compare every bookmaker to find value.

The Problem

By the time you find one good bet, the odds have moved.

It's near impossible to do this manually, that's why thousands of Aussies have switched to using Automated Positive Expected Value software that finds these bets for you!

Using Software To Find +EV Bets

How Does The Bookie Charity +EV Software Work?

The software scrapes odds from multiple bookmakers around the world, including sharp bookies like Pinnacle, which is well known for extremely accurate pricing.

First, odds are gathered from every bookmaker simultaneously. The margin is then removed from each bookmaker's odds for every outcome, leaving us with their individual "fair odds."

We then calculate a weighted average of these odds, giving extra weight to sharper bookmakers based on their margins. Lower margins typically indicate more confidence in pricing, providing a truer reflection of fair odds.

This average becomes our benchmark, what we consider the most accurate "fair odds" for any outcome.

Every bookmaker is then analyzed against this benchmark. If any offer pricing above those fair odds, the opportunity is sent immediately to both the website and Discord server.

Bankroll Management & Staking

Positive EV betting works over the long term. To survive short term variance swings you need proper bankroll management.

Your Bankroll

Your bankroll is the total amount you've set aside for betting. This should be money you can afford to have tied up in bookmaker accounts.

How Much To Place On Each Bet - Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a staking method that calculates the optimal bet size based on your edge and odds.

It tells you what percentage of your bankroll to risk on each bet to maximize long term growth while minimizing risk of fully depleting your bankroll.

For our Carlton example with a 13.6% edge, Kelly would suggest betting around 9% of your bankroll.

Fractional Kelly - The Safer Approach

Using full Kelly is quite aggressive and not recommended for new bettors, it is best to use fractional Kelly. Instead of betting the full Kelly percentage, you can bet 1/2 or a 1/4.

This approach is more conservative, reduces swings in your bankroll, and protects you if your edge calculations aren't perfect.

Stay Consistent

Whatever percentage you choose, stick to it across all your positive EV bets. Consistency is what makes the math work over time.

Getting Started with Positive Expected Value in Australia

1. Choosing the Right Software

Manual EV betting doesn't work. You need software that scans bookmakers in real time and alerts you to opportunities.

Look for software that covers bookmakers in your region, allows for custom filters, and has low latency for odds retrieval.

Bookie Charity is currently tailored for both Australian and American bettors, covering every Australian bookmaker including Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Neds, Bet365, Unibet, and PointsBet, as well as major USA bookmakers like DraftKings, BetMGM, and Fanatics.

2. Setting Your Filters

Once you've signed up to your selected software, configure your filters to optimize your income and suit your risk tolerance.

Recommended filters for those starting out:

Sport - Best practice is to leave all selected.

Bookmakers - Choose any bookmakers where you have accounts.

Odds - Lower maximum odds reduce variance but show fewer opportunities. Higher maximum odds increase opportunities and variance. Ideally set this to a maximum of 4.00.

EV - Set minimum and maximum EV%. While anything above 0% is profitable, we recommend setting the minimum to at least 3%. Avoid extremely high percentages (20%+) as these can flag your account.

Starts In - Set minimum and maximum time until event start. Best practice is betting close to start time, ideally within a few hours.

Stake - Stakes are calculated using Kelly Criterion staking. We recommend ½ Kelly as a good balance and rounding to $5 for account sustainability.

The software will only show you opportunities that match your criteria, saving you time and keeping you focused only on the bets you want to place.

3. Placing and Tracking Bets

When an alert comes through, check the bet is still available at the listed odds. Bookmaker prices move quickly, so act fast.

Place your stake according to your Kelly percentage. Then track every bet in your bet tracker.

Recording your bets lets you measure your actual results against expected value. Over time, you'll see the math play out as luck subsides and the true probabilities play out.